Where is the gold price heading?

                                     Gold is something that humans have decided is a valuable asset so where is the price going? This was the subject of debate at the Dubai Precious Metals Conference at Almas Tower in JLT today. Panelists taking part in the debate were moderator Saana Azzam, MKS Precious Metals DMCC; Andy Smith; Christoph Eibl of Tiberius Group; Philip Klapwijk of Precious Metals Insights Limited, and Ross Norman of Sharps Pixley.

Will the price go up to $3,000 in 2014 or down to $1,000? The audience at the Dubai Precious Metals Conference voted 59 per cent to 41 per cent in favour of a move towards $3,000 in 2014 - a bullish audience. 

In contrast, Eibl believes gold will be anihalated. "I tend to feel negative about gold prices today, investors have already purchased what they want to purchase... and they will not continue to buy at the rates of previous years... the demand trend is about to top out and we see that the price is grinding down.

Klapwijk agrees: "It's increasingly probable that gold market has turned from bull to bear... can we rely on Central Banks looking forward or have those buyers also filled their boots? but to go back to the main issue, investor demand. The gold market is now running a surplus rinning about 2,200 tonnes, that leaves 1700 tonnes that investors have to purchase. Will investors put $90 billion into the gold market at today's prices, year after year? I think it's likely investor demand will continue but at a lower level and the gold price will reset... the price will fall substantially from even the current levels."

Gold firm to start the week in Asia

               Gold futures are trading higher in the early part of Monday’s Asian session as traders in the region contemplate the notion that the Federal Reserve may not move quickly to wind down quantitative easing in the wake of a slack March U.S. jobs report. 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery rose 0.03% to USD1,576.35 per troy ounce in Asian trading Monday. Gold prices were likely to find support at USD1,539.85 a troy ounce, the low from April 4 and an 11-month low and resistance at USD1,604.25, the high from April 2. 

The yellow metal surged 1.8% last Friday in the U.S. to settle the week at USD1,580.65 a troy ounce after traders embrace gold’s safe-haven status following the disappointing jobs number. 

The U.S. Department of Labor said the world’s largest economy added 88,000 jobs last month, the smallest increase since last June and far below forecasts for an increase of 200,000. That report also showed that the unemployment rate ticked down to 7.6% from 7.7% in February, but that decline was by virtue of a plummeting rate of participation in the U.S. labor market. 

The participation rate fell to 63.3%, the lowest level since 1979, indicating that some Americans are simply giving up on their job searches. 

Oil inches higher as Asia digest U.S. jobs report

             CrudeOil futures are trading slightly higher in the early part of Monday’s Asian session as traders in the region take their turn digesting the dismal U.S. March jobs report delivered last Friday. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for May delivery rose 0.11% to USD92.81 per barrel in Asian trading Monday after dropping 0.25% Friday to settle the week at USD93.02 a barrel. 

Oil fell after the U.S. Department of Labor said the world’s largest economy added 88,000 jobs last month, the smallest increase since last June and far below forecasts for an increase of 200,000. That report also showed that the unemployment rate ticked down to 7.6% from 7.7% in February, but that decline was by virtue of a plummeting rate of participation in the U.S. labor market. 

The participation rate fell to 63.3%, the lowest level since 1979, indicating that some Americans are simply giving up on their job searches. 

As the U.S. is the world’s largest oil consumer, oil futures often take their cues from economic data there, particularly the jobs data. Speaking of economic data, traders will now turn their attention to China’s CPI and PPI data due out later today. China is the world’s second-largest oil consumer. 

Elsewhere, South Sudan restarted oil production following a bitter 15-month spat with Sudan. South Sudan became an independent country in 2011 and has the ability to pump about 352,500 barrels per day. 

Later this week, Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company will provide investors with an interim update on its quarterly results before reporting those results in full later this month. In 2012, Chevron had a reserve replacement ratio of 112%. 

Meanwhile, Brent crude for May delivery added 0.10% to USD104.45 per barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange. - investing.com