Natural gas surges to 21-month high after bullish U.S. supply report

              Natural gas futures erased losses to touch a 21-month high during U.S. morning hours on Thursday, after a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed natural gas supplies rose less-than-expected last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in May traded at USD4.319 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning trade, up 2.5% on the day.       

Nymex gas prices fell by as much as 1% earlier in the day to hit a session low of USD4.173 per million British thermal units, before retracing losses to touch a daily high of USD4.333, the strongest level since July 28, 2011. 

The May contract traded at USD4.179 prior to the release of the U.S. Energy Information Administration report.  

Copper futures at lowest since October 2011 on demand concerns

            Copper futures fell to the lowest level since October 2011 during European morning hours on Thursday, as global growth concerns continued to weigh on the industrial metal.

Copper is sensitive to the economic outlook because of its widespread uses in construction and manufacturing.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery traded at USD3.153 a pound during European morning trade, down 1.1% on the day.

New York-traded copper prices fell by as much as 3.5% earlier in the session to hit a daily low of USD3.065 a pound, the weakest level since October 20, 2011.

Concerns over the global economic outlook intensified earlier in the week after the International Monetary Fund cut its 2013 forecast for global growth to 3.3%, down from its January projection of 3.5%. 

Gold futures down again; market remains vulnerable to further selling

                      Gold futures were lower during early European trade on Thursday, re-approaching a 27-month low hit earlier in the week as sentiment on the precious metal remained bearish.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery traded at USD1,374.35 a troy ounce during European morning hours, down 0.6% on the day.

Comex gold prices fell by as much as 2% earlier in the session to hit a daily low of USD1,337.25 a troy ounce. Comex gold fell to USD1,322.25 an ounce on Tuesday, the weakest level since January 28, 2011.

Gold prices were likely to find support at USD1,322.25 a troy ounce, the previous session’s low and near-term resistance at USD1,395.05, the previous session’s high.

Gold prices have lost nearly 13%, or almost USD200 per ounce, since last Friday, as investors exited the market after prices broke below key support levels. 

Oil falls despite Beige Book report

                      Crude Oil futures traded lower in the early part of Thursday’s Asian despite some decent comments in the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report published Wednesday. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for June delivery dropped 0.53% to USD86.50 per barrel in Asian trading Thursday after sliding 2.24% to USD87.04 a barrel on Wednesday in the U.S. 

Crude Oil and other riskier assets such as U.S. stocks plunged after the International Monetary Fund pared its outlook for global economic growth this year. 

On Wednesday, the IMF trimmed its 2013 world economic growth forecast to 3.3%, down from a January projection of 3.5%, while the multilateral lending institution's 2014 growth forecast fell to 4.0% from 4.1%. 

Later Wednesday, the Fed’s Beige Book report, which surveys the central bank’s 12 regional districts, indicated those regions have seen modest economic improvement since late February. 

Gold Miners Lose $169 Billion as Price Slump Adds ETF Pain

                                Gold producers, ignored as global stocks rebounded in the past two years and investors turned to exchange-traded funds that track bullion, face closing mines or shutting themselves down after the metal’s worst slump in three decades this week made 15 percent of miners unprofitable.

Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) and Newmont Mining Corp., the world’s two largest producers, are among companies in the FTSE Gold Mines Index (FTMIGMI) that have collectively lost about $169 billion in market value since bullion peaked in 2011. Gold equities are trading at the lowest level relative to gold in at least 20 years after the metal’s 14 percent plunge so far in April.

“Any company that hasn’t been focused on efficiencies and costs for the last three to four years is going to fail in this market,” said Gavin Thomas, chief executive officer of Sydney- based gold miner Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd.This month’s futures price drop to as low as $1,361.10 an ounce brings gold closer to the global average production cost of about $1,200 an ounce, according to Nomura Holdings Inc. That puts producers such as Canada’s Semafo Inc. and Golden Star Resources Ltd. at risk of mine closures or “financial distress” if prices fall to that level, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. Tanzania, Africa’s fourth-largest gold-producer, said a sustained slump may shut mines there.

Gold’s 9.3 percent plunge on April 15, the biggest one-day drop in New York since March 1980, couldn’t have come at a worse time for gold companies.

Rising Costs

Despite 12 consecutive years of rising gold prices, shareholders have lost faith in the gold-mining industry, which has seen soaring production costs and made money-losing acquisitions. Investors have instead flocked to exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, such as the SPDR Gold Trust, which are backed by bullion and track the price of the metal.

The FTSE gold index, which tracks 27 of the largest producers, has plunged 58 percent to yesterday since bullion hit a record on Sept. 6, 2011. Over the same period, the MSCI All Country World Index (MXWD), which tracks 2,431 global stocks, climbed 22 percent.

“Gold companies have underperformed the gold price for more than the past 20 years, quite simply because they make as little money today for shareholders as they did at $300 an ounce,” Brenton Saunders, who helps manage about $600 million at Taurus Funds Management Pty., said from Sydney.

Starved of fresh capital, smaller mining companies that carry out exploration and development were already being squeezed before this week’s price crash. There are too many companies in need of financing and there will be production stoppages as some of them cut expenses, said John Ing, CEO of Toronto-based brokerage Maison Placements Canada Inc.

Geopolitical Risk

“If the price stays where it is, you will see a slew of closures of smaller, non-producing companies and the majors pull way back on any new projects,” said Ken Hoffman, a Princeton, New Jersey-based analyst at Bloomberg Industries.

Companies relying on a single asset and those in Africa, already struggling with deteriorating geopolitical risk over the past year, will find it more difficult to convince banks to fund projects, Tyler Broda, a gold analyst at Nomura in London, said by phone from London on April 16. Tanzania, where Barrick and South Africa’s AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. operate, is concerned that continued price weakness will discourage investment and lead to mine closures, Ally Samaje, acting minerals commissioner, said April 16.

At current prices, “probably 15 percent of global gold miners from our calculations would be under water at the moment,” Broda said. He predicts gold could fall to as low as $1,000 an ounce this year. Gold for June delivery gained $1.70 cents to $1,384.40 an ounce at 5:47 p.m. in Sydney.

Mine Review

“Golden Star, like other gold producers, is assessing the effect of the fall in the gold price on our budget and production plan,” President and CEO Sam Coetzer said in an e- mail. “We are also reviewing the discretionary capital component of our capital plan for 2013.”

Semafo, which mines in West Africa, may close its Samira Hill mine in Niger, Macquarie analysts said in an April 16 note. Sofia St. Laurent, a spokeswoman for Semafo, didn’t immediately respond to phone calls and an e-mail seeking comment. Omar Jabara, a spokesman for Newmont, said the Greenwood Village, Colorado-based company will continue to rein in costs.Andy Lloyd, a spokesman for Barrick, declined to comment on whether the company’s African Barrick Gold Plc unit could shut mines in Tanzania.

Spending Cuts

Some other miners are already contemplating cost reductions. Petropavlovsk Plc, a London-based miner of gold in Russia, may suspend inessential investment plans and cut exploration spending should prices stay weak, Chairman Peter Hambro said April 16 in an interview.

AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. is reviewing each of its 20 operations “to extract operating efficiencies,” said Alan Fine, a spokesman for the Johannesburg-based company. South Africa’s Harmony Gold Mining Co. said its average so-called all- in cost of production in the six months ended Dec. 31 was about $1,446 an ounce.

“We are currently in the next planning cycle and will obviously take the new gold price level into account,” Harmony CEO Graham Briggs said in e-mailed comments.

To be sure, even if prices don’t recover, some companies will continue to be profitable. Barrick’s all-in production cost, which includes everything from exploration to waste-rock removal expenses, was $972 an ounce in the first quarter. Newmont’s all-in cost was $1,192.

Top Pick

In Australia, low-cost producers including Beadell Resources Ltd., Regis Resources Ltd. and Newcrest Mining Ltd., the country’s largest producer, are likely to withstand the rout better than their local peers, said Vincent Pisani, an analyst at Shaw Stockbroking Ltd. in Melbourne.

Goldcorp Inc., the biggest producer by market value, is the “top pick” among North American producers because it has a strong balance sheet and low-cost assets, Macquarie said. Yamana Gold Inc., New Gold Inc. and Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. could also withstand lower prices without changing their plans or depleting lines of credit, analysts at RBC Capital Markets said April 15.

Furthermore, gold may still rebound from current levels. Bullion for immediate delivery will average $1,717 this year, according to the mean of 29 analyst’s estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

“We’ve historically seen breaks like this in precious metals and we’ve always seen it bounce back,” Maison’s Ing said. “There is no certainty the price that we see today is going to be the price that we are going to see next year or the year after.”

Growth and Demand Outlooks Weigh On Crude Oil

             Crude oil continues its decline this morning trading at 86.75 down by 23 cents as growth and recovery downgrades weigh heavily on the commodity. U.S. crude futures for May delivery closed down by $2.04 at $86.68 a barrel, down by 2.3% on Wednesday. Crude prices were down on concerns over weak global oil demand after the IMF cut its global growth forecast to 3.3%. The International Energy Agency said that falling crude prices was evidence that the oil market is well supplied, putting additional pressure on prices. However, crude inventories unexpectedly fell by 1.2M which prevented further downside in prices.

Oil prices have fallen almost 7 percent in the last five days on expectations of sluggish demand from the U.S. and China, the world’s two biggest economies. The price of Brent crude oil has tumbled 18 percent from a peak of $118 a barrel in February to below $98 this week. Weaker-than-expected economic data from the U.S. and China over the past week have heightened concerns that the global economic outlook is not as strong as many expected just a couple of months ago. But the fall in oil prices provides a silver lining, say analysts. Yesterday the US Fed Reserve released its “Beige Book” which reviews the state of the US economy and is a guide for the FOMC. The assessment released Wednesday said overall activity is growing at a moderate pace, which is better than the report six weeks ago in which the economy was growing at a “modest to moderate” pace. According to the report, most of the nation saw increases in manufacturing, though the labor market was either unchanged or improved slightly. There were reports of hiring in manufacturing, residential construction, information technology and professional services.

Oil’s fall comes as part of a wider commodities rout triggered by data released Monday showing growth in China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, had slowed unexpectedly in the first three months of 2013.Brent crude futures for June delivery hit a low of $96.75 before paring losses to trade at $97.32 early on Wednesday, down 37 cents. Brent stretched its losses into a seventh session – its longest losing streak since October last year.

Oil prices were also under pressure given risk of political uncertainty in the euro zone, where Italy’s divided parliament begins voting for a new state president on Thursday, a crucial step towards resolving the stalemate since the inconclusive election in February and to carry on with fiscal reforms.Investors seemed to shrug off news of Shell declaring force majeure on Nigerian Bonny Light crude oil exports. The company said it was shutting down the 150,000-barrel-per-day Nembe Creek pipeline in Nigeria for repairs.The stronger US dollar is also weighing on prices as equity markets fell around the globe yesterday, traders moved to the safety of the US dollar.

Natural gas prices also eased to trade at 4.189 giving up 19 pips this morning as the dollar strengthened as traders sold off to book profits, with natural gas breaking above the 4.20 mark activating sell orders. U.S. natural gas ended higher as chilly weather forecast boosted the heating demand and supported prices. Inventories today are expected to be positive which could push prices down. However prices are likely to move in a range before the data. - FxEmpire

Gold and Silver Continue to Snowball

                   Gold remains weak on Wednesday morning dropping over $7.00 to trade at 1379.95 while silver tumbles farther to trade at 23.425 down by 20 cents. Precious metals remain weak, unable to regain footing.  On Tuesday gold futures managed to score their first gain in 3-sessions, but wounds from the fierce selloff that dragged prices down by more than $200 per ounce in two days will take time to heal.

Gold holdings of SPDR gold trust, the largest ETF backed by the precious metal, declined to 1,145.92 tons, as on April 16 as the fund continues to selloff holdings deepening the wound. Silver weakening as precious metals decline and industrial metals tumble has seen silver holdings of ishares silver trust, the largest ETF backed by the metal, declined to 10,451.01 tons, as on April 15. The meteoric rise of exchange-traded gold products over the past decade has now exposed thousands of small investors to losses after years of gains in an asset previously the preserve of eccentrics, collectors and central banks.

Industrial metals prices rose yesterday helped by a weaker dollar and as upbeat housing data from the U.S. propped up hopes of more solid metals demand growth, prompting some buying after a sharp fall in the previous session, but is giving back those gains in this morning session as the US dollar gains some traction.

The US dollar and the Japanese yen dropped on Tuesday, as investors sold the safe-haven currencies and bought gold and US stocks a day after heavy selling in the yellow metal.

The dollar index fell to 81.781 in Tuesday afternoon trade from 82.318 on late Monday.

IMF in its World Economic Outlook said that the euro zone remains the weakest part of the global economy and warned that a long period of low growth in the currency area would weaken the potential for expansion in the neighboring economies of central and Eastern Europe, as well as further afield. Five years after the financial crisis started, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a warning about the increasing fragmentation of the global economy, the very visible split between the dynamism of emerging countries, the US’ resistance and the persistent weakening of the eurozone.

In figures, the grim picture painted by the IMF in its 16 April report, look like this: global GDP estimations have been lowered and it is now predicted to be 3.3% this year, compared with the 3.5% predicted in January. To no one’s surprise, the eurozone is still a major cause of concern for the Washington-based institution – which holds its general assembly this week. In the short term, risks mainly stem from the evolution of the eurozone, in particular “inconclusive elections in heavily indebted Italy and the problematic Cyprus bailout,” the IMF wrote.

Precious metals and industrial metals are expected to remain weak as traders are worried about the upcoming FOMC meeting in the US as speculators are thinking that the central bank might slow its asset purchase program. - fx Empire

SBV to extend Gold auctions to narrow price gap

        Vietnam central bank's latest gold bullion auction witnessed some improvement as 40,000 taels of 37.5 grams each gold bars were sold, the highest volume yet.

The fifth auction held on Wednesday attracted more buyers as bidders, mostly jewelers and banks, paid VND43.3-43.31 million ($2,068) per tael.

The previous highest volume sold was around 26,000 taels in the last two auctions. SJC, Vietnam's largest gold trader, offered a tael at VND43.35 million.

The central bank has so far sold nearly 120,000 taels from the country's reserves in the auctions it started holding in late March The auctions began after jewelers were prohibited from producing gold bullion in last May.

Oil falls after IMF pares U.S. GDP estimate

                  Crude Oil futures are trading to the downside in the early part of Friday’s Asian session after being weighed by down yet another concerning data point. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for May delivery are off 0.11% at USD93.41 per barrel in Asian trading Friday, perhaps indicating that traders are not overly impressed with the U.S. weekly jobless claims report. 

In U.S. economic news out Thursday, initial claims for jobless benefits fell to 346,000 last week from 388,000 in the previous week. Economists expected a reading of 360,000 new claims. The less volatile four-week moving average rose to 358,000 from 355,000. The U.S. is the world’s largest oil consumer. 

What may be weighing on oil is the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook, in which it pared estimate for U.S. GDP growth this year to 1.7% from a previous estimate of 2%. The IMF also cut its estimate for global growth to 3.4% from 3.5%. 

Endeavour Silver posts record Q1 production

                    Endeavour Silver Corp (TSE:EDR) (NYSE:EXK) has said that it had significantly lifted bullion production and revenues for the first quarter ended March 31, but warned that some lost production days are anticipated in the second quarter during the re-commissioning of the El Cubo plant in Guanajuato State. 

The precious metals miner said it planned on strong first quarter production to compensate for a possible dip in second quarter output related to the plant and surface infrastructure rebuilding programs at El Cubo.

The company has three operating silver mines in Mexico: the Guanacevi mine in Durango State and the Bolanitos and El Cubo Mines in Guanajuato State.

Silver production in the first quarter was up 39% to 1.48 million ounces from 1.07 million ounces a year earlier and gold production more than doubled year-over-year to 15,032 ounces, from 6,3201 ounces.

Revenues increased 42% to US$69.9 million, from $49 million in the year-ago period, thanks to the increased metal production and some sales of accumulated concentrate, partly offset by lower metal prices, the company said.

In the first quarter, silver and equivalents production escalated 63% to 2.32 million ounces year-over-year.

"Endeavour's mining operations enjoyed a good start to 2013 with record quarterly silver and gold production in the first quarter,” said president and COO Godfrey Walton.

“Guanacevi rebounded from a slow start with better than planned silver grades and recoveries thanks to the commencement of production at the Porvenir Cuatro mine.

"Bolanitos continued to exceed expectations with higher than planned mine output, the extra ore being processed at the leased Las Torres plant near El Cubo and the extra concentrates being sold thanks to two new concentrate sales contracts.”

Indeed, the miner signed two new concentrate sales contracts for Bolanitos in the quarter, in order to facilitate higher production. Revenue is subject to adjustment upon final settlement in the second quarter, it said, including metal prices.

Endeavour said that the realized silver price fell 11% to $29.38 per ounce sold, two-per-cent below the average price for the quarter, while the average realized gold price fell four per cent to $1,686 per ounce sold, one per cent lower than the average price in the quarter.

As at the quarter’s end, the company said bullion inventory included 234,970 ounces of silver and 2,091 ounces of gold. Concentrate inventory included 321,487 ounces of silver and 5,589 ounces of gold.

Endeavour Silver is a mid-tier silver mining company focused on the growth of its silver production, reserves and resources in Mexico. - Bullion street

Gold down on Fed, Goldman Sachs comments

          Gold futures are trading lower in the early part of Thursday’s Asian session following potentially concerning commentary from some members of the Federal Reserve and a bearish outlook on bullion from Goldman Sachs. 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery fell 0.22% to USD1,555.35 per troy ounce in Asian trading Thursday after settling down 1.80% at USD1,558.15 a troy ounce in U.S. trading on Wednesday. 

Gold futures were likely to test support USD1,539.85 a troy ounce, Thursday's low, and resistance at USD1,590.05, Tuesday's high. 

In U.S. economic news, several members of the Federal Reserve said the central bank should begin winding down its monetary easing program later this and perhaps end the program outright by year-end, according to the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes. 

Your Gold & Silver Outlook: 2013

Your Gold & Silver Outlook: 2013

Silver prices have delivered the best gains since 2002, according to Lloyds TSB. But, of course, the key question for precious metals investors is whether gold and silver will continue to be a good performer for 2013.

What’s Happened So Far

The prices of gold and silver decreased slightly last week. This caused some notice from the media and investors. Even with the extremely concerning news coming out of Cyprus's, gold and silver didn't pull up from their downward price movement.

Gold has been trading at new lows for the year and Silver making multi-year lows. Some commentators are suggesting that the Gold/Silver bull market is over with.

The Real Deal

Although off to a rough start, we still believe Gold And Silver are paced to go higher.

Gold and silver investments may have shot up five years ago, but they have been extremely popular this year. 

In January, the United States Mint sold 7.5 Million American Silver Eagle Coins. Yet in all of 2007, the US Mint sold only sold 9.9 million American Silver Eagles. So in the first month of 2013, the US Mint sold 75% of what it did in 2007.

In fact, demand was so strong that the Mint temporarily ran out of stock and had to suspend sales for roughly 10 days. In addition, the premiums of American Gold Eagle Coins hit highs not seen since June 2010.

The US Mint is expecting to sell a record number of silver American Eagles in 2013. 

We know that to some investors, problems that surfaced during the recent recession, such as the collapse of the mortgage-backed securities market, prompted them to seek safety in tangible, versus "paper," assets. This is one of many factors boosting interest in owning physical gold and silver bullion.

Another trend that is surfacing is state legislation similar to the one passed in 2011 in Utah. This allowed Gold And Silver Bullion Coins issued by the US Mint to be used as legal tender. 

People place their gold and silver bullion coins in the Utah Gold & Silver Depository and receive a card that acts similar to a debit card which they can use to make purchases of up to 80 percent of the coins' current value. A dozen other states have been considering similar legislation.

The Outlook

Some commentators seem temped to call this gold and silver bull market dead and gone. We think differently.

The fundamentals of gold and silver have not changed. There are still Massive Amounts Of New Currency In Circulation. The United States Mint is selling record amounts of gold and silver. And most importantly, the role of gold and silver as monetary metal, not just another commodity, is beginning to resurface in states like Utah.

We haven’t seen nothin’ yet.  - Goldsilver.com

Traders Selling Brent and Crude Oil Spreads

                          This morning WTI crude oil is trading at 93.61 adding 25 cents since the market opened. West Texas Intermediate oil traded near the highest level in almost a week. U.S. crude stockpiles probably increased from the largest in more than two decades, a Bloomberg News survey showed before a government report.

Yesterday, crude oil prices closed higher, lifted by gains in gasoline futures and strong selling of the spread between Brent crude and US crude. Brent’s premium to US West Texas Intermediate futures closed at $11.3 per barrel, after narrowing to just over $11 in afternoon trade, the lowest level since June.

Venezuela’s production of crude and natural gas liquids has stabilized at 3.12million barrels per day after state oil company PDVSA halted a decline in output from the OPEC nation’s second-most productive region, Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said in an interview on Monday. South Sudan will start marketing crude from the end of May after resuming oil production on Saturday, its oil minister said on Monday now that the two Sudan’s have finally reached agreements.

Brazil’s oil regulator, the ANP, said yesterday that it authorized Chevron to restart output from an offshore oil field more than a year after a November 2011 spill forced the No. 2 U.S. oil company to stop Brazilian production.

Speculators Continue To Sell Gold, Silver Futures, Options – CFTC

                            For the second week in a row, speculators shed bullish gold and silver futures and options contracts traded on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, according to U.S. government data, with funds turning net-short silver in one of the reports.

For the week ended April 2, speculators in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly commitment of traders report chopped the net-long position in gold, returning to levels seen in early March. That essentially wiped out most of the newly established bullish positions built during late March.

For silver, large speculators turned net-short for the first time in the disaggregated report, which dates back to September 2009. These traders are still net-long in the legacy report, but it is the smallest position since at least early 2007.

In the platinum group metals, large speculators returned as buyers for both metals, in both reports; meanwhile, they added to the ever-growing net-short position in copper.

Prices for the metals were mixed during the week to April 2, which is the timeframe covered by the report. June Comex gold fell $21.40 to $1,575.90 an ounce as of April 2. May silver fell $1.431 to $27.248. Nymex July platinum gained $4.40 to $1,574.20, while June palladium rose $8 to $769.40. Comex May copper fell 6.4 cents to $3.3785 a pound.

Crude Oil slightly higher, though looking for catalysts

             Crude Oil futures are trading slightly higher in Asia Tuesday, though catalysts to really move crude significantly in one direction or the other appear to be on short supply. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for May delivery rose 0.07% to USD93.42 per barrel in Asian trading Tuesday after settling 0.37% at USD93.04 a barrel on Monday in the U.S. 

The Bank of Japan’s massive new monetary easing program was seen as the catalyst to lift oil higher Monday. The Bank of Japan conducted its first government bond purchasing operation early Monday when it bought JPY1.2 trillion in Japanese government debt maturing in five years or more. 

Elsewhere, Brazil announced it will allow Chevron to resume oil production. The Brazilian government halted Chevron’s activities there after a small 2011 spill at the Frade Field. Chevron is the second-largest U.S. oil company. Brazil is vying with OPEC member for the title of South America’s largest oil producer. 

Where is the gold price heading?

                                     Gold is something that humans have decided is a valuable asset so where is the price going? This was the subject of debate at the Dubai Precious Metals Conference at Almas Tower in JLT today. Panelists taking part in the debate were moderator Saana Azzam, MKS Precious Metals DMCC; Andy Smith; Christoph Eibl of Tiberius Group; Philip Klapwijk of Precious Metals Insights Limited, and Ross Norman of Sharps Pixley.

Will the price go up to $3,000 in 2014 or down to $1,000? The audience at the Dubai Precious Metals Conference voted 59 per cent to 41 per cent in favour of a move towards $3,000 in 2014 - a bullish audience. 

In contrast, Eibl believes gold will be anihalated. "I tend to feel negative about gold prices today, investors have already purchased what they want to purchase... and they will not continue to buy at the rates of previous years... the demand trend is about to top out and we see that the price is grinding down.

Klapwijk agrees: "It's increasingly probable that gold market has turned from bull to bear... can we rely on Central Banks looking forward or have those buyers also filled their boots? but to go back to the main issue, investor demand. The gold market is now running a surplus rinning about 2,200 tonnes, that leaves 1700 tonnes that investors have to purchase. Will investors put $90 billion into the gold market at today's prices, year after year? I think it's likely investor demand will continue but at a lower level and the gold price will reset... the price will fall substantially from even the current levels."

Gold firm to start the week in Asia

               Gold futures are trading higher in the early part of Monday’s Asian session as traders in the region contemplate the notion that the Federal Reserve may not move quickly to wind down quantitative easing in the wake of a slack March U.S. jobs report. 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery rose 0.03% to USD1,576.35 per troy ounce in Asian trading Monday. Gold prices were likely to find support at USD1,539.85 a troy ounce, the low from April 4 and an 11-month low and resistance at USD1,604.25, the high from April 2. 

The yellow metal surged 1.8% last Friday in the U.S. to settle the week at USD1,580.65 a troy ounce after traders embrace gold’s safe-haven status following the disappointing jobs number. 

The U.S. Department of Labor said the world’s largest economy added 88,000 jobs last month, the smallest increase since last June and far below forecasts for an increase of 200,000. That report also showed that the unemployment rate ticked down to 7.6% from 7.7% in February, but that decline was by virtue of a plummeting rate of participation in the U.S. labor market. 

The participation rate fell to 63.3%, the lowest level since 1979, indicating that some Americans are simply giving up on their job searches. 

Oil inches higher as Asia digest U.S. jobs report

             CrudeOil futures are trading slightly higher in the early part of Monday’s Asian session as traders in the region take their turn digesting the dismal U.S. March jobs report delivered last Friday. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for May delivery rose 0.11% to USD92.81 per barrel in Asian trading Monday after dropping 0.25% Friday to settle the week at USD93.02 a barrel. 

Oil fell after the U.S. Department of Labor said the world’s largest economy added 88,000 jobs last month, the smallest increase since last June and far below forecasts for an increase of 200,000. That report also showed that the unemployment rate ticked down to 7.6% from 7.7% in February, but that decline was by virtue of a plummeting rate of participation in the U.S. labor market. 

The participation rate fell to 63.3%, the lowest level since 1979, indicating that some Americans are simply giving up on their job searches. 

As the U.S. is the world’s largest oil consumer, oil futures often take their cues from economic data there, particularly the jobs data. Speaking of economic data, traders will now turn their attention to China’s CPI and PPI data due out later today. China is the world’s second-largest oil consumer. 

Elsewhere, South Sudan restarted oil production following a bitter 15-month spat with Sudan. South Sudan became an independent country in 2011 and has the ability to pump about 352,500 barrels per day. 

Later this week, Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company will provide investors with an interim update on its quarterly results before reporting those results in full later this month. In 2012, Chevron had a reserve replacement ratio of 112%. 

Meanwhile, Brent crude for May delivery added 0.10% to USD104.45 per barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange. - investing.com

Copper futures fall to 8-month low ahead of ECB, U.S. jobs data

    Copper futures fell to the lowest level since early August during European morning hours on Thursday, as a broadly stronger U.S. dollar dampened the appeal of the industrial metal.

Investors now looked ahead to the European Central Bank’s policy decision due later in the day, as well as Friday’s U.S. jobs data for trading cues.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery traded at USD3.323 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.3% on the day.

New York-traded copper prices fell by as much as 0.8% earlier in the session to hit a daily low of USD3.306 a pound, the weakest level since August 3.

Copper prices struggled for upside traction due to a stronger U.S. dollar, as dollar-priced commodities become more expensive to investors holding other currencies when the greenback gains.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.7% to trade at 83.47, the strongest level since August.

Market players now looked ahead to Friday’s highly-anticipated U.S. monthly nonfarm payrolls report to further asses the strength of the country’s economy.

The U.S. is second behind China in global copper demand.

Investors also awaited the European Central Bank’s policy decision due later in the day, as well as comments by ECB President Mario Draghi for further hints on the future of its monetary policy.

Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for June delivery dipped 0.5% to trade at USD1,545.75 a troy ounce, while silver for May delivery was flat to trade at USD26.79 a troy ounce.

Gold and silver remained under pressure as investors were hesitant to enter the precious metals market amid a weak technical outlook.

Gold prices were trading at an 11-month low, while silver futures fell to the lowest since July.

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Trading In The Green

                                             WTI crude oil closed up 24 cents at $96.58 a barrel, up by 0.25% yesterday. Crude oil futures staged a modest rebound from earlier losses, clawing back above $96 per barrel to extend gains for the fourth session in a row, as recent signs of economic recovery bode well for demand prospects. Crude remains flat after the Asian session today. Crude prices were supported on optimism that US economy is recovering which would improve the demand prospects for crude. However the upside was limited due to a stronger dollar which is trading new a record high of 83.40 this morning and higher inventories which came at 3.3M. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a climb in crude supplies that was about double market expectations. Crude supplies rose 3.3 million barrels for the week ended March 22. Analysts expected a 1.6 million-barrel climb. Motor gasoline supplies fell by 1.6 million barrels, matching analysts’ expectations, while distillate stockpiles declined by 4.5 million barrels, compared with forecasts for a decline of 700,000 barrels in distillate supplies.

Traders can expect crude prices to go slightly up as loose monetary policies by US and Japan is likely to support prices. Assurances from the new head of the Bank of Japan that he would push through more stimulus and new programs at next week’s meeting helped support oil prices.

Japan’s oil imports from Iran rose 15.9 percent in February from a year ago to the highest in eleven months, customs cleared data showed on Thursday, a rare increase from one of the major buyers of crude from sanctions-hit Iran.