METALS OUTLOOK: Sentiment In Gold Changes; Watch Asian Activity

The short-term sentiment in gold changed this week, particularly as the market took out an important technical-chart level, but whether the metal extends its losses might depend on what Asian buyers do next week when they return from their Lunar New Year festival.

Prices were lower on the day and the week. Most-active April gold on the Comex division of the Nymex settled at $1,609.50, down 3.4% on the week. March silver settled at $29.869, down 5% on the week.  
In the U.S., markets are closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. Trade resumes Tuesday.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those 25 participants, nine see prices up, while 12 see prices down, and four see prices moving sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

Market participants said attitudes in gold for now have changed, pointing to an increase in open interest in Comex futures market as prices fall. Open interest is a

Gold slides on euro zone recession fears

Gold futures extended losses from Thursday’s U.S. session in the early part of Asian trading today as traders digested some slack economic data out of Europe. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery fell 0.24% to USD1,631.65 per troy ounce in Asian trading Friday. That decline comes after gold settled down 0.54% at USD1,636.15 a troy ounce in U.S. trading on Thursday.

Gold futures were likely to test support USD1,626.05 a troy ounce, the low from Jan. 4, and resistance at USD1,653.75, Wednesday's high. On Thursday, a reported showed the euro zone’s fourth-quarter GDP contracted by 0.6%, well below expectations for a 0.4% quarterly decline and far surpassing the previous 0.1% contraction. It was the worst rate of contraction since 2009 and the third straight quarter of negative growth. Typically, economists consider an economy to be in recession with two consecutive negative GDP readings.

Gold edges up in Asia despite a strong dollar

Gold edged up in Asian trade Monday despite a relatively strong dollar. Gold for immediate delivery was seen trading at $1667.15 an ounce at 12.00 noon Singapore time while US gold was seen at $1667.94 an ounce on the comex division of nymex.

Strength in the dollar and a rise in U.S. stocks following better-than-expected trade data drew investors away from the precious metal at the end of last week . Analysts said the precious yellow metal is likely to remain highly volatile during the day as most investors stayed away from trade ahead of Chines New Year holidays. Meanwhile, platinum and palladium hovered below their strongest levels in 17 months after

Oil rises following U.S. blizzard

Oil futures rose modestly to start the Asian trading week after one of the worst blizzards in decades struck the U.S. East Coast, prompting speculation that heating oil and natural gas prices are poised to jump in the near-term. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for March delivery added 0.06% to USD95.78 per barrel in Asian trading Monday. Last week, New York-traded crude dipped 1.85% for its first decline in nine weeks.

Traders seemed to gloss over comments from Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani who said the U.S. is on pace to become energy independent as soon as 2018. Due to soaring production at various shale formations such as the Bakken and Eagle Ford, U.S. oil output has jumped in recent years to the point that the world’s largest oil consumer has become a next exporter of the commodity. Some estimates have said the U.S. will be energy by 2020 while others have put the date further out at 2030, implying Ambani’s comments are on the ambitious side. The U.S. December trade deficit fell to its lowest level in three years due to increased oil and gas exports. On a related note, British media reports said this weekend that the U.K. perhaps has enough shale gas reserves to fuel the kingdom for 1,500 years. Elsewhere, the African nation of Cameroon said this weekend that it sees oil production climbing 9% this year to an estimated 90,000 barrels per day. Last week, Norway’s state-controlled oil producer Statoil said it plans to spend USD20 billion per year in a bid to boost production by 25% per year by 2020. The company spend just USD13.7 billion on exploration and production projects three years ago compared with an estimated 2013 capital budget of USD19 billion. Elsewhere, Brent futures for April deliver fell 0.01% to USD117.80 per barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange.

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Courtesy: INVESTING.COM

Copper futures edge higher on global recovery hopes; U.S. data eyed

Copper futures edged higher to hit a two-day high on Tuesday, as mounting optimism over the health of the global economy continued to support appetite for growth-linked assets.

Copper is sensitive to the economic outlook because of its widespread uses in construction and manufacturing.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.673 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.3% on the day.

New York-traded copper prices rose by as much as 0.75% earlier in the day to hit a session high of USD3.691 a pound.

Copper prices rose Monday after data showed that U.S. durable goods orders rose more-than-expected in December, jumping 4.6% compared to expectations for a 1.8% rise.

Market participants now looked ahead to Wednesday’s preliminary data on U.S. fourth quarter economic growth, as well as Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, as markets attempt to gauge the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

The Federal Reserve’s policy-setting meeting on Wednesday will also be in focus, as markets search for clues over the future of the central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy.

Also, China will release its official manufacturing data for January at the end of the week, providing investors with another chance to see whether the recovery in the world’s second largest economy remains on track.

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for April delivery rose 0.5% to trade at USD1,662.85 a troy ounce, while silver for March delivery climbed 0.95% to trade at USD31.07 a troy ounce.

Source : INVESTING.COM

Natural gas prices plunge as forecasts finally agree on warming trend

Natural gas futures plummeted on Monday after weather services began forecasting a warming trend to settle in over the central and eastern swathes of the U.S.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in March traded at USD3.314 per million British thermal units, down 4.29%.

The commodity hit a session low of USD3.305 and a high of USD3.414.

Colder temperatures gripping the central and

Twenty Reasons to Buy Silver for the Long-Term!

I believe that silver could go to $60 per ounce from today’s price of just $30 by the end of 2014. That would be double from today’s current prices in just a little over two years! I also believe silver will be the best single investment of this decade. The following article is focused on why I think that you should seriously consider having a significant percentage of your investment portfolio in silver.

 

Many gold investors deride silver as the "poor man's gold" because of its low relative price to gold. They also don't like the fact that it because it is used primarily as an industrial metal it can be negatively affected by a cyclical downturn in the economy. This is opposite of gold which is viewed almost entirely as a precious metal. Many years ago, the silver market was so oversupplied because there were huge artificial inventories of silver. This was because the US took currency (coins) out of circulation due to its physical silver content. Because of this artificial situation, huge surpluses hung over the market until these excess inventories were depleted. This led to silver prices crashing as low as $2 and then traded around $5 for years. Because silver had so decoupled from the price of gold during this period, it began to be thought of as just another industrial metal and not a precious metal.

 

There are still skeptics who think of silver as just another industrial metal. However after a 600% rise in price from $5 to $30 since 2003, it has begun again to be viewed as a precious metal. I think that silver has only completed about fifty percent of that process. As this transformation continues there will be additional significant moves higher in price. That will attract more investors to silver again until it once again retains its true status as a precious metal.

 

1) The amount of silver consumed annually and bought for investment exceeds currently exceeds total annual mining output and has for years. That gap has been filled by sellers willing to sell from existing inventories and as prices rise. As time passes this will naturally push prices significantly higher until this fundamental imbalance reaches a true equilibrium price where supply is closer to demand.

 

2) Both industrial and investment demand for silver is growing in excess of the annual increase in mining production growth. The available inventory is low and will get even tighter over time. These two factors will lead to a continued tighter supply-demand situation going forward. 

 

3) The lower price of silver at $32 appeals more broadly to small investors relative to the more expensive gold at $1705, especially if gold prices continue to rise.

 

4) Most silver is not found in mining sites in any significant concentrated form. It is usually chemically bound to other metals; much of it is actually the byproduct of mining for lead, copper, etc. In the last few decades this made it less attractive from a profitability standpoint to invest in pure silver mine. Now prices have finally recovered enough to make new projects feasible again. So there is new investment in the sector but it is a lengthy multi-year process to bring on significant new production. .

 

5) The last time silver was found in huge concentrations or veins that dramatically affected the amount available and therefore significantly lowered prices was in the Comstock Lode in Nevada in the late 1800's. The Comstock Lode produced tons of ore that was very pure with concentrations of 25-50% silver. Silver mines today have much lower concentrations, usually always less than two ounces per ton of refined ore.

 

6) Silver is the most conductive metal on earth. Gold is also conductive but is prohibitively

Copper futures drop as profit taking, U.S. debt concerns weigh

               Copper futures declined during European morning hours on Monday, as focus remained squarely on the U.S. economic outlook and how U.S. lawmakers will deal with the upcoming debt ceiling debate.

Some profit taking also contributed to losses, after New York-traded copper prices rallied to the highest level since mid-October last week.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.666 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.75% on the day.

New York-traded copper prices fell by as much as 1% earlier in the session to hit a daily low of USD3.657 a pound. Futures rose to USD3.758 on January 3, the strongest level since October 18.

Copper futures rallied last week after U.S. lawmakers passed a last-minute bill to avoid the fiscal cliff, a series of looming tax increases and spending cuts that could have pushed the U.S. economy back into a recession.

Focus was expected to remain on the U.S. economy, as investors remained jittery over the

Crude oil futures lower with U.S. economy in focus

                         Crude oil futures were lower during European morning trade on Monday, as focus remained on the U.S. economic outlook and how U.S. lawmakers will deal with the upcoming debt ceiling debate.

Some profit taking also contributed to losses, after New York-traded oil prices rallied to the highest level since mid-September last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in February traded at USD92.59 a barrel during European morning trade, down 0.5% on the day.

New York-traded oil prices fell by as much as 0.6% earlier in the session to trade at a daily low of USD92.56 a barrel. Oil futures touched USD93.82 a barrel on January 2, the strongest level since September 19.

New York-traded oil futures climbed 2.5% last week, the fourth consecutive weekly gain and the biggest advance in nearly three months.

Oil prices kicked off 2013 with sharp gains, after U.S. lawmakers passed a last-minute bill to avoid the

Gold futures edge higher as focus remains on Fed outlook

                Gold futures edged higher during European morning trade on Monday, as investors considered the outlook for Federal Reserve policy while focus remained squarely on the U.S. economy.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery traded at USD1,655.15 a troy ounce during European morning trade, up 0.4% on the day.

Prices rose by as much as 0.8% earlier in the session to hit a daily high of USD1,662.55 a troy ounce. Gold futures fell to USD1,626.05 a troy ounce on January 4, the lowest level since August 21.

Gold prices were likely to find support at USD1,626.05 a troy ounce, the low from January 4 and resistance at USD1,690.55, January 3’s high.

Gold futures tumbled to a four-month low in the previous session after the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting indicated that the central bank could end its bond-buying program earlier than expected.

According to the minutes, several Fed officials thought the central bank would be able to slow or stop its quantitative easing program well before December 2013.

Moves in the gold price over the past year have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the U.S. central bank would pump more money into the financial system.

On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor said the economy added 155,000 jobs in December, easing from an increase of 161,000 in November. The unemployment rate held steady at 7.8%.

The Fed’s December minutes said monetary policy will remain accommodative “at least as long” as the jobless rate remains above 6.5%.

Meanwhile, focus remained on how U.S. lawmakers will deal with the upcoming debt ceiling debate.

U.S. lawmakers passed a last-minute bill to avoid the fiscal cliff last week, a series of looming tax increases and spending cuts that could have pushed the U.S. economy back into a recession.

But investors remained jittery over the longer term fiscal outlook, with negotiations on raising the U.S. debt ceiling still to come in February.

A stronger U.S. dollar limited any significant gains. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a

Silver is next best thing in Pakistan

          Silver jewelery sales in Pakistan gained momentum after higher gold prices along with higher tax levied on buying gold.
According to All Sindh Sarafa Association sale of silver items at jewelery shops soared to a new high and keen business in silver was also seen in select parts of the country.

Consumers are forced to buy silver as it is considered “the next best thing”, they said. Similar to big neighbor India, silver prices in Pakistan climb steeply at the beginning of the festive season and also during the wedding season.
The main reason behind this is

Gold slightly higher in Asia; jobs, Fed still hurdles

                       Gold futures rose modestly in the early part of Monday’s Asian session after touching a four-month low last Friday as traders are still weighing the impact of the most recent U.S. jobs report and the possibility that the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program will come to an end this year. 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery gained 0.66% to USD1,659.45 per troy ounce in Asian trading Monday. Bullion traded as high as USD1,660.05 and as low as USD1,655.95 per ounce.

 

After falling 0.3% last week, gold prices were likely to find support at USD1,626.05 a troy ounce, Friday’s low and a 19-week low and

Oil lower in Asia following last week’s surge

                Oil futures fell modestly in the early part of Monday’s Asian session, paring last week’s gains that saw crude rally 2.55%. That performance was good for the fourth consecutive weekly gain. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for February delivery fell 0.08% to USD93.02 per barrel. That small retrenchment comes after rose 0.2% Friday to settle the week at USD93.08 a barrel by close of trade. Crude futures flirted with the USD94 per barrel level last Wednesday.

 

Oil prices turned higher after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 11.1 million barrels last week, compared to expectations for a decline of 0.9 million barrels. 

Oil was also bolstered by a decent U.S. jobs report, which showed the world’s largest economy added 155,000 new jobs in December. That number was slightly ahead of economists’ expectations, but the unemployment rate also rose modestly to 7.8% from 7.7%. The U.S. is the world’s largest oil-consuming nation by a wide margin and signs of a pickup in economic activity there are viewed as a

Natural gas prices gain as inventories take unexpected dive

Natural gas futures shot up on Friday after inventories fell more than expected in the U.S., reversing several sessions of losses stemming from forecasts for warming temperatures.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in February traded at USD3.281 per million British thermal units, up 2.61%.

The Energy Information Administration reported earlier that U.S. natural gas storage fell by a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 135 billion cubic feet last week, beating out market calls for a decline of 127 billion cubic feet.

The news brought in buyers who have spent several days on the sidelines thanks to forecasts for warmer weather.

Earlier this week, weather service provider MDA Weather said that it expected temperatures to warm up in the coming days through the second week of January.

Elsewhere, Commodity Weather Group in Bethesda, Maryland, reported that cooler temperatures across most of the mainland U.S. will thaw and yield to above-normal temperatures from Jan. 7 through Jan. 11, which sent natural gas prices plummeting in earlier sessions. 

Natural gas futures are very sensitive to weather reports in the U.S. winter.

The U.S. heating season running from November through March sees peak demand for gas.

About half of U.S. households use gas for heating purposes, according to Energy Department data.

Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in February were up 0.16% and trading at USD93.06 a barrel, while heating oil for February delivery were down 0.28% and trading at USD3.0166 per gallon. - investing.com

Gold drops as U.S. jobs report fails to inspire rally

Gold prices dropped on Friday after the U.S. government released its December jobs report, which beat expectations but did not come in solid enough to spark a risk-on rally needed to bolster the precious metal. 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery were down 1.35% at USD1,652.05 a troy ounce in U.S. trading, up from a session low of USD1,626.05 and down from a high of USD1,664.45 a troy ounce.

Gold futures were likely to test support USD1,626.05 a troy ounce, the earlier low, and

Oil retreats in Asia after cliff deal, mixed U.S. data

After surging 1.19% to settle at at USD92.91 a barrel during Wednesday’s U.S. session, oil futures drifted lower in the early part of Thursday’s Asian session as traders may have been focusing more some mixed data points out of the U.S. rather than fiscal cliff-related ebullience. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for February delivery slipped 0.43% to USD92.72 per barrel in Asian trading Thursday. Oil’s decline may also be a sign that futures, which were flirting with three-month highs after the U.S. session, rose too much too rapidly and that traders are looking to lock in some profits. 

Gold, silver oil and other riskier assets jumped during Wednesday’s U.S. session, buoyed by positive fiscal cliff news. On Tuesday night, the U.S. House of Representatives ratified a fiscal cliff bill previously approved by the Senate that will raise taxes on American households earning over USD450,000 per year. Those taxes increases are designed to increase government revenue by USD620 billion over 10 years. 

However, the two U.S. data points released during the session were mixed. In U.S. economic news, the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose to 50.7 in December from 49.5 in November. Readings above 50 signal expansion. ISM's employment index rose to 52.7 from 48.4 in November. 

The Commerce Department said construction spending fell 0.3% in November. The October number was revised lower to an increase of 0.7% from an initial reading of growth of 1.4%. The November decline is the first since March 2012. 

Oil traders will now turn their attention to the U.S. weekly jobless claims report due out later today and the December non-farm payroll report due to be delivered by the Labor Department on Friday. 

Elsewhere, Brent futures for February deliver fell 0.18% to USD111.19 per barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange.- INVESTING.COM

Natural gas extends losses as forecasts point to warming temps ahead

Natural gas futures extended Monday's losses into Wednesday after weather services continued to forecast warmer temperatures for much of the U.S.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in February traded at USD3.232 per million British thermal units, down 3.57%.

Earlier this week, weather service provider MDA Weather said that it expected temperatures to warm up in the coming days through the second week of January.

Elsewhere, Commodity Weather Group in Bethesda, Maryland, reported that cooler temperatures across most of the mainland U.S. will thaw and yield to above-normal temperatures from Jan. 7 through Jan. 11, which sent natural gas prices plummeting. 

Natural gas futures are very sensitive to weather reports in the U.S. winter.

The U.S. heating season running from November through March sees peak demand for gas.

About half of U.S. households use gas for heating purposes, according to Energy Department data.

Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas storage fell less than expected in the week before last, official data revealed on Friday, though weather forecasts served as the market's chief weather vane.

In a report, the Energy Information Administration said that U.S. natural gas storage fell by 72 billion cubic feet last week to 3.652 trillion cubic feet, less than a decline of 82 billion cubic feet in the preceding week. 

Analysts had expected U.S. natural gas storage to fall 76 billion cubic feet last week, though markets focused more on weather forecasts

Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in February were up 1.24% and trading at USD92.96 a barrel, while heating oil for February delivery were up 0.69% and trading at USD3.0526 per gallon.

Oil Drops From Highest in Three Months on Signs Gains Excessive

Oil slid for the first time in three days in New York on speculation that its surge to the highest level in three months yesterday may have been excessive.

Futures lost as much as 0.7 percent after rallying 2.6 percent in the past two days as U.S. lawmakers passed a bill to undo automatic tax increases and spending cuts that threatened growth in the world’s biggest oil-consuming country. Crude declined today as technical indicators showed futures may have risen too quickly for further gains to be sustainable, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“We’re getting a mild sell signal and the coincidence of those levels mean that some traders will be bailing out,” said Michael McCarthy, a chief strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney. “What we’re seeing is longs closing out, taking some profit.”

West Texas Intermediate for February delivery dropped as much as 63 cents to $92.49 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $92.82 at 12:54 p.m. in Singapore. The contract yesterday climbed 1.4 percent to $93.12 a barrel, the highest settlement since Sept. 18. The volume was 37 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day.

Brent oil for February settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange fell as much as 65 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $111.82 a barrel. Prices advanced 3.5 percent in 2012, a fourth annual gain. The number of contracts changing hands was 26 percent less than the 100-day average.

New York crude yesterday settled higher than the 30-day upper Bollinger Band for the fourth time in a week, signaling the market is overbought, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Prices decreased in mid-September after closing above the same indicator, about $92.48 a barrel today. -BLOOMBERG

Gold set to shine even more brightly in 2013

Gold proved a good place to store wealth in 2012 and so it could be again in 2013.

Over the last 12 months the precious metal has gained around 6% in value to $1,674 an ounce, driven by investors looking for safe havens from the eurozone, more quantitative easing from the US Federal Reserve, demand from central banks, and supply issues especially in South Africa.

A raft of commentators, brokers and industry participants predict it will climb higher, topping $2,000 and even rising as high as $2,500 by the close of 2013.

That looked a near-certainty in November when the Fed unleashed a third round of QE, a move that sent the gold price close to $1,800.

The mood has cooled since then, even though for the gold bulls the scenarios that drove the price higher in 2012 remain more or less intact.

Chief among these is the prospect of continued or even more QE in 2013 if the tentative US recovery seems in danger of stalling.

This is, runs the theory, likely to undermine the US dollar, traditionally something that moves in the opposite direction to the gold price.

Central banks have also been increasing gold reserves, especially in emerging market countries due to concerns over paper currencies.

The official sector has now been a net buyer of gold each year since 2009, as developed economies’ central banks have sold increasingly small quantities of gold.

Gold is also likely to be classified a top-tier bank asset, meaning commercial banks would be able to lend against 100% of their gold holdings rather than 50%.

And perhaps most importantly, there has been the growth of physically-backed exchange-traded funds, which track gold prices.

In the third quarter of 2012, global ETF holdings increased by 189 tonnes, a 56% jump year-on-year, with holdings at record levels in the SPDR Gold Trust.

But despite the conviction of bullish investors, December saw a perceptible mood change. Uncertainty sparked by the US fiscal cliff had an impact, but also a nagging doubt that the American economy may be doing better than expected may also be to blame.

Unemployment has fallen sharply and the US Fed has tied its QE programme to US job creation. Some whisper, albeit quietly, that even the eurozone may be over the worst.

None of this has yet meant too many changes in gold price forecasts, which range between a cautious $1,800 and an ultra-bullish $2,500 in 2013, but perhaps they are now written in heavy lead instead of ink.

Silver played its usual role as gold’s understudy in the early part of last year but recently has been outstripping its more expensive cousin.

A recent survey by Bloomberg suggested this might continue as it came up with a median price of $40.25 an ounce next year, a 30% rise.

It put the surge in price down to a combination of little new supply coming on stream and improving industrial demand. 

Platinum has been dominated by the industrial unrest in South Africa, which slashed production by 640,000 ounces during the year. The upshot was to eliminate a surplus overhang of the white metal and push prices higher.

Brokers expect more unrest in the current year especially when Anglo American publishes a review of its Amplats division, which may recommend mine closures. 

Morgan Stanley predicts the platinum price will average $1,715 in 2013, up from $1,538 in 2012.
Courtesy: This Is Money