Where is the gold price heading?

                                     Gold is something that humans have decided is a valuable asset so where is the price going? This was the subject of debate at the Dubai Precious Metals Conference at Almas Tower in JLT today. Panelists taking part in the debate were moderator Saana Azzam, MKS Precious Metals DMCC; Andy Smith; Christoph Eibl of Tiberius Group; Philip Klapwijk of Precious Metals Insights Limited, and Ross Norman of Sharps Pixley.

Will the price go up to $3,000 in 2014 or down to $1,000? The audience at the Dubai Precious Metals Conference voted 59 per cent to 41 per cent in favour of a move towards $3,000 in 2014 - a bullish audience. 

In contrast, Eibl believes gold will be anihalated. "I tend to feel negative about gold prices today, investors have already purchased what they want to purchase... and they will not continue to buy at the rates of previous years... the demand trend is about to top out and we see that the price is grinding down.

Klapwijk agrees: "It's increasingly probable that gold market has turned from bull to bear... can we rely on Central Banks looking forward or have those buyers also filled their boots? but to go back to the main issue, investor demand. The gold market is now running a surplus rinning about 2,200 tonnes, that leaves 1700 tonnes that investors have to purchase. Will investors put $90 billion into the gold market at today's prices, year after year? I think it's likely investor demand will continue but at a lower level and the gold price will reset... the price will fall substantially from even the current levels."

Norman strongly disagrees with these two co-panelists: "I'm quite convinced we will see $3,000 before $1,000. In the short term, we will see neither. In the medium term, we will have an economic event... whether it will be a deflationary or inflationary crisis, I don't know but I think there will be something that will push investors towards gold... gold is a tiny lifeboat for those wanting protection for a rainy day. There are enough black swans out there to make a flock.

"We're seeing the beginning of the bull-run still... gold is not expensive at the current prices, it's darn cheap! Gold will hit $3,000 in the longer term. Emerging markets are looking to buy double, triple their current supplies...discoveries of gold are falling, uses are rising..."

Smith is also hugely bullish on gold - because the world economy will collapse and everyone will run to gold, he says. "Things are going to get messy... we've had 200 good years, we're at the apex now... our wealth position is 'where shall we put the gold?' Vaults are filling all over the world, people want physical gold.

"I think people want to believe the crisis is over and QE has worked... QE is permanent, it's confetti, I don't see this ending happily in any respect." - cpifinancial.